Market Equilibration Process Essay

The economy affects all areas of one’s life and understanding the laws of supply and demand allow one to understand when the market is in a state of equilibrium. This paper discusses market equilibrium associated with the supply and demand of sugar cane in Brazil. The author will discuss the law of supply and demand with the detriments of demand and supply, describe efficient markets theory, and explain surplus and shortage. Brazil Brazil is one of the world’s largest suppliers of sugar, but inclement weather has decreased sugar supply. Brazil delivers more than 50% of the world’s sugar, and the 2011 decline is the first since 2006 (Roseman, 2011). With the decreased sugar crop, the price of sugar is increasing, thus all products using sugar will increase in price as a result of the shortage. The rise in the cost against the supply and demand of sugar takes the sugar market out of equilibrium. Market equilibrium can only be established when quantity demanded meets the quantity supplied (McConnell, Brue, & Flynn, 2009). See the graph showing the market for sugar in a state of equilibrium, and the market as supplies dwindle and prices rise. For the sugar to reach market equilibrium again the supply of sugar must be raised or the demand for sugar must decrease. By raising the price of sugar, the market demand will decrease, thus causing the market to reach a state of equilibrium again. The Law of Supply and Demand For one to understand market equilibrium, one must have a valid understanding of the law of supply and demand. Generally speaking, the law of supply and demand is defined as the producers supplying the goods that people are  searching for or want (What is Economics?, n.d.). A higher demand of product causes manufacturers to increase price, but increased price means consumers are less likely to purchase, thus causing a shift in the supply and demand of the product. Likewise, if a product is in short supply, the demand increases causing producers to increase price, thus decreasing demand (McConnell et al., 2009). Efficient Market Theory â€Å"A competitive market not only rations goods to consumers, but allocates society’s resources efficiently to the particular product† (McConnell et al., 2009, p. 56). This happens because competitors will use the latest technology and resources to ensure production costs remain low, thus allowing competitors to compete for the best price in the market. This results in productive efficiency or producing products in the least expensive way (McConnell et al., 2009). In addition to productive efficiency, competitive markets also have one other attribute. Competitive markets produce allocative efficiency, or the producers’ ability to provide the â€Å"best mix of products and services that consumers’ value† (McConnell et al., 2009, p. 56). The efficient market theory suggests that producers of goods and services control the market by identifying the most competitive pricing. Surplus and Shortage Everyone has a definition of surplus and shortage, but in economics these two bring special situations into the economy. Surplus and shortage cause fluctuations of price from the level of market equilibrium. A surplus of goods in any area causes consumer prices to drop, thus hurting the competitive market (McConnell et al., 2009). Consumers buy the surplus, but organizations sell at a loss. Just as surplus of goods hurts the competitive market, so does a shortage. A shortage is created when the price of a good drops below the equilibrium level, thus raising consumer demand. The demand for the product is higher than the quantity supplied (McConnell et al., 2009). This will drive consumer prices higher, thus causing more and more consumers to stop buying the product. Although one might see a higher price to consumers as a benefit to the suppliers, in the end it results in lost profit as a result of lost sales. Conclusion To effectively manage, own, or market products one must have valid understanding of the market equilibration process. This process is essential to understanding what governs supplier production, consumer costs, and organizational profit. To remain in the competitive market, the organization must strive to remain at the cusp of an equilibrium market. References Colander, D. C., Sephton, P., & Richter, C. (2003). Chapter 5: Using supply and demand. In Macroeconomics (2nd Canadian ed., pp. 104-131). Retrieved from http://highered.mheducation.com/sites/0070901104/information_center_view0/sample_chapter.html McConnell, C. R., Brue, S. L., & Flynn, S. M. (2009). Economics: Principles, problems, & policies (18th ed.). Retrieved from https://newclassroom3.phoenix.edu/Classroom/#/contextid/OSIRIS:47397274/context/co/view/home Roseman, E. (2011, July 7). Poor Brazilian crop threatens sugar supplies. The Sovereign Investor Daily. Retrieved from http://thesovereigninvestor.com/commodities/sugar-supplies-threatened-by-poor-brazilian-crop/ What is Economics? (n.d.). http://www.whatiseconomics.org/the-law-of-supply-and-demand

Rhetorical Analysis on “Here’s Why Legalizing Marijuana Makes Sense” Essay

In ‘Here’s Why Legalizing Marijuana Makes Sense’, Alex Newhouse, a lawyer who resides in the area of Sunnyside, Washington addresses the controversial issue of the legalization of cannabis. The sole purpose of Newhouse’s article is to persuade readers and voters that marijuana should be legalized. Throughout his article, Newhouse focuses on the use of ethos and logos, while also slightly focusing on the use of pathos, to help persuade his audience. The incorporation of such rhetoric strategies allows Newhouse to change the opinions of individuals with views opposing the opinions he, himself, holds. Alex Newhouse starts out his article with a very strong statement: â€Å"No one has ever died from simply using marijuana† (1). By opening his work with this statement, Newhouse automatically incorporates pathos, a very powerful rhetorical strategies, into his piece. Although it is simple, Newhouse’s statement can provoke feelings such as astonishment, disbelief, happiness, and curiosity. Readers may feel a mix of very different emotions from Newhouse’s statement, but the mere provocation of even one emotional response is enough to grab the readers’ interest and to begin persuading them to parallel their views with those of the author. Towards the end of his article, Newhouse again incorporates pathos. He does so by saying, â€Å"Regulating marijuana would also protect our children† (1). The use of this sentence allows Newhouse to appeal to the emotions of his audience. It is apparent that the sentence is aimed towards parents. Hence, when a parent reads such a sentence, his or her instinct to protect his or her children goes off, thus making the parent feel protective, curious, and possibly even reassured and/or calm. As a result of reading the above sentence, many parents would automatically take Newhouse’s opinions into great consideration, since his sentence implies that Newhouse cares about his readers’ children. Also, by using the word â€Å"our† in that sentence, Newhouse uses ethos, appeal to credibility, as a rhetorical strategy. The use of the word â€Å"our† implies that Newhouse is a parent himself and understands what it’s like to raise children while trying to protect them from dangerous (for youth) substances, such as marijuana. Not only is Newhouse’s opening statement, â€Å"No one has ever died from simply using marijuana† an incorporation of pathos, but it is also an incorporation of logos, another very powerful rhetorical strategy (1). In his statement, he  implies that of the many people who have used marijuana, not one person has died. Newhouse’s opening statement is subtle and appears to be numberless, but it is a statistic nonetheless. Throughout his article, Newhouse makes references to many different statistics, all referring to marijuana. Another way in which Newhouse incorporates the use of logos in his article is by making statements such as, â€Å"According to the White House’s Office of National Drug Control Policy, over 100 million Americans have tried or use marijuana,† and â€Å"†¦the U.S. has spent approximately a trillion dollars and 100,000 lives on a drug war that could be reined in considerably with marijuana legalization† (1). By using such statistics, Newhouse appeals to the logic of his audience. The use of statistics in any article or editorial appeals to the audience’s logic, which benefits the author by helping persuade his or her readers. Although Newhouse focuses on the incorporation of logos, he also focuses on the incorporation of ethos almost immediately. In his opening paragraph, Newhouse refers to someone of higher authority, stating, â€Å"In 1872, then-President Richard Nixon appointed the Shafer Commission to study the nation’s rising drug problem. It reported the following: ‘Neither the marihuana [sic] user nor the drug itself can be said to constitute a danger to public safety† (1). By making a reference to Richard Nixon and the Shafer Commission, Newhouse appeals to credibility, since they were well-known people of power during the time of that quote. The use of ethos, especially in the beginning of a piece of literature, automatically lets the reader(s) know that the author’s credibility can be trusted. This technique can help open the minds of readers who are in opposition of the author’s argument. In â€Å"Here’s Why Legalizing Marijuana Makes Sense†, Alex Newhouse presents a well-supported argument on the legalization of marijuana. Throughout the piece, Newhouse uses three main rhetorical strategies to persuade his readers: ethos, pathos, and logos. For example, Newhouse makes a reference to his life and a reference to sources that had been written by people who have/had authority on the subject of marijuana legalization. He also used quite a few statistics to persuade his audience. By repeatedly incorporating one rhetorical strategy after another, Newhouse is able to build a strong-standing argument to back up his beliefs on the legalization of cannabis. From his introductory sentence to his closing sentence, the author, Alex Newhouse, used a handful of rhetorical strategies  to his advantage. Work Cited Newhouse, Alex. â€Å"Here’s Why Legalizing Marijuana Makes Sense.† Yakima Herald-Republic. 13 Aug. 2011. Web. 30 Jan. 2012. . Part 2: Legalization of Marijuana Over the past few years, the issue of the legalization of marijuana has become a very controversial topic. When confronted with the issue, it feels almost instinctive to feel as though marijuana should forever be illegal. However, when the issue is really dissected and thought about, it becomes apparent that there are more pros than there are cons for the legalization of marijuana. Cannabis should be legalized under strict conditions (concerning who can use the substance, and how much can be used in a certain period of time) because it can increase overall satisfaction of life for cancer patients, there are no recorded deaths caused by marijuana usage, it can be taxed, it can decrease crime rates, increase state revenues, and decrease taxes. Legalizing marijuana would directly benefit cancer patients who undergo chemotherapy. Chemotherapy often makes patients experience side effects such as pain, loss of appetite, nausea, and vomiting. Many cancer patients being treated with chemotherapy begin to look sick, pale, and frail. Often times, they’re hospitalized for days. During those days, they look as though every ounce of happiness and satisfaction is being drained from their lives. All they can do is hope they’ll make it another day, and that tomorrow will be a better day. Perhaps if they were allowed a small amount of marijuana, their happiness and satisfaction with their lives would increase drastically. The use of marijuana can relieve chemotherapy side effects such as pain, loss of appetite, nausea, and vomiting, thus allowing a patient to live a higher-quality life. Not only would legalizing marijuana benefit cancer patients, but it would also benefit the population as a whole. There have been no reported deaths caused by the use of marijuana. On the contrary, dronabinol, a synthetic ver sion and isomer of tetrahydrocannabinol, the primary isomer and psychoactive drug in cannabis, has caused a number of deaths. If marijuana were legalized, there would be no need for Marinol, the prescription drug of dronabinol. Therefore, people  would not have to worry as much about losing a loved one because of the use of synthetic tetrahydrocannabinol. Another reason why marijuana should be legalized is that if it is legalized, it would be able to be taxed. Although taxing marijuana would not be a miraculous economy boost that would get the United States out of its debt, it would increase state revenues by billions of dollars per year. California has already made billions of dollars from the partial legalization of the drug; research has shown that complete legalization would earn the state billions of dollars more in revenue per year. Regulating and taxing marijuana would lead to a decrease in crime rates. The regulation and taxing of marijuana would automatically decrease the number of drug dealers in the United States, since the drug dealers selling marijuana would lose all of their customers to stores. This would lead to a decrease in drug-related crimes. The decrease in drug dealers could also mean less people being sent to jail for nonviolent drug-related crimes. Since portions of peoples’ taxes go towards jails, this could eventually decrease taxes, too. When thought about simply, the legalization of marijuana may seem like a terrible idea. The thought of it spurs a terrifying image of a lazy, munchies-crazed society, merely lying back as the rest of the world moves forward. However, when thought about in more depth, it is obvious that marijuana should be legalized because it would be greatly beneficial in many different ways, for it can increase overall satisfaction of life for cancer patients, there are no recorded deaths caused by marijuana usage, be taxed, decrease crime rates, increase state revenues, and decrease taxes.

Business Environment Of Vodafone Group Plc Marketing Essay

Business Environment Of Vodafone Group Plc Marketing Essay The aim of this report is to analysis the external and internal business environment of Vodafone Group Plc, and identifies possible strategy for Vodafone to sustain growth. Vodafone existence in Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and United States; operated in form of subsidiary, joint venture, associated, or investment in 21 countries, and operated in form of partner market agreement in 49 countries. See Annex I for details. To understand a company, it is best practice to begin from its Vision and Mission statement to understand the corporate direction. â€Å"Our Vision is to be the world’s mobile communication leader – enriching customers’ lives, helping individuals, businesses and communities be more connected in a mobile world.† â€Å"Our mission is to lead the industry in responding to public concerns regarding mobile phones, masts and health by demonstrating leading edge practices and encouraging others to follow.† External analysis PE STEL Analysis is tool used to scan the external macro-environment in which the company operates. It express in terms of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal. Political Political factors including political stability, labor law, environmental law, trade restrictions, tax policy, and tariff. Country which Vodafone operate their business are political stable, and welcome for foreign investment or joint venture with local business. China, Israel, India have tax benefit for foreign investor. In UK, Ofcom introduced the local loop unbundling process required BT to allow other operators to install their own equipment in BT exchange; this policy lowered the entry barrier for the industry. Also more licenses was issued to new operator, competition in the market has become hot. Economic Economic factors including exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and the economic growth. The global financial crisis especially in Europe causes the economic growth slo wly. Under this situation, customers become more price-driven than quality-driven. The bargaining power of bankers become stronger, get loan from bank become more difficult and have to pay higher interest. Social Social factors including population growth rate, age distribution, cultural aspects and life style. In Vodafone’s home country -UK, the population is increasing due to immigration and birth rate increase. The life style and way of using mobile phone are changing. The number of fixed line user is decreasing and the number of mobile phone user is increasing. Mobile phone is no longer using for only making phone call and text message, nowadays mobile phone is also use for web browsing, social media, and entertainment. Technological Technological factors including rate of technological change, automation, and technology incentives. The way of people using mobile phone change, need of a faster data transmission rate become necessary. New technology on both hardware and so ftware, such as IP phone and video on demand become common technology. Environmental Environmental factors including environmental protection regulation and non-regulated issue related to the industry. Currently there is no environmental regulation directly related to the industry. Legal Legal factors referring to laws regulating businesses. EU Roaming Regulation urges operators to lower charge on roaming service. Internal Analysis Resources Analysis Tangible Resources Vodafone Group Plc has total  £139,576 million of assets in year 2012. It has 14,000 stores and 238,000 base stations worldwide.

Computer Network Security Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Computer Network Security - Case Study Example In order to protect digital information, organizations are keen to implement technical controls such as firewalls, Intrusion Detection Systems, honeypots and Demilitarized zones. These controls are considered as logical and provide security on the logical layer. However, often the important aspect i.e. information security management is not addressed to the optimal level. A typical information security program is led by an information security manager who establishes a steering committee for discussing security aspects focusing not only on the IT department but every department within the enterprise. Some of the management controls that are implemented by the information security manager are IT governance, Risk management, monitoring Key Process Indicators (KPI) and Key Goal Indicators (KGI). KPI demonstrates the current state of security within an organization and KGI demonstrates the level of security to be achieved. As per the current scenario, critical data must be protected by i mplementing Firewalls to secure the network from external logical threats and Virtual Private Network will be implemented for securing the data transmission on the Wide Area Network. 2 Detailed Network Security Recommendations 2.1 Fundamentals of Firewall and VPN Network security appliances are implemented for providing three fundamental functions i.e. prevention, detection, and correction. Some of the most commonly adopted security appliances are Firewalls and Intrusion Detection Systems. Firewall is defined as â€Å"a piece of software or hardware device that ? filters the information coming through the Internet connection into a private network or a computer system. Firewall enforces an access control policy between two or more networks with two key functions: to block unwanted traf?c, and to permit wanted traf?c† (Firewall.2007). Similarly, as per network dictionary, Intrusion detection system is defined as â€Å"Intrusion detection system (IDS) is a type of security man agement system for computers and networks. An IDS gathers and analyzes information from various areas within a computer or a network to identify possible security breaches, which include both intrusions and misuse†. 2.2 Recommendation for Firewall and VPN Remote access ‘VPN’ provide emulation of a workstation to a remote user. It can extend every application related to data, video or voice communication. Remote access ‘VPN’ can provide highly customizable and secure remote access to employees anywhere anytime with any compatible device (Vachon & Graziani,). They can access the network resources and data access with any compatible device. The remote access ‘VPN’ portrays a realistic user experience as the user access his own system. The access is more flexible and easy because it can be operated by any compatible computing device. Remote access ‘VPN’ supports a wide variety of connectivity options and platforms, fulfilling the user requirements efficiently. 2.3 Recommended Solution for the Enterprise-A recommended solution for the enterprise will be a hardware-based firewall that is also called as Adaptive Security appliance ASA 5500 from Cisco. The ‘Cisco ASA 5500 Series Security Appliances’ personalize the security for specific network requirements such as securing credit card transactions.  

International Business Finance Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

International Business Finance - Essay Example The different structures of currency (fixed, pegged, etc.) also influence the risk. Fluctuations in forex rates have a direct impact on the sales revenues, and thus the profits of importers and exporters. This impact can be at all the three levels; short-run, inter-mediate term, and the long run. There are 4 factors that influence the fluctuation of forex rates: It is defined as the elasticity of the real domestic currency value of Assets and Liabilities, appearing in the financial statements to unanticipated changes in exchange rates. This value serves as a standard to evaluate discounted cash-flow evaluation. It is used for income tax purposes and for legal obligation to combine financial statements. Accounting exposure cannot be managed. Selection of valuation technique is immaterial as the choice doesn't affect any real cash flow except for taxes; the only correct method is economic value anyway. For simplicity and a consistent method current rate method is used. It is defined as the elasticity of the real domestic currency value of Assets and Liabilities, when assets and liabilities are liquidated with respect to unexpected changes in exchange rates for exporting, importing, or import-substituting firms. As the name suggests, it is the exposure that rises due to trading of goods and services, borrowing and lending funds, etc. Forex transaction exposure can be dealt by with the usage of contractual, operating, and financial hedges. Contractual hedges employ the forward, futures, money and options market. Operating and financial hedges employ the use of risk-sharing agreements, some types of financial derivative, and other strategies. In this part, we focus on contractual hedges. Hedging implies replacement of an unlock future exchange risk with a presently known exchange rate where alternatives such as Forward/Future Market Hedge, Money Market Hedge, Risk shifting (price all products in home currency), Pricing Decisions, or Currency Risk Sha ring can be used. Operating Exposure: It is defined as the elasticity of the real domestic currency value of Assets and Liabilities, or future operating incomes to unforeseen changes in exchange rates. They are based on the extent to which the value of the firm - as measured by the present value of its expected cash flows. Scenario I: Closed Economy Internal costs and prices are unaffected by exchange rate changes, therefore no exports or imports. Scenario 2: Open Economy Small, open economy and an international price for all goods and factors increase by 45%. Then, except for contractual exposure effects. There are two widespread misunderstandings about forex as follows: a) Only organizations having international operations are exposed to it b) Quoting prices for trade in local currency would eliminate the exposure. The true assumption that can be concluded from the two concepts is the fact that the structure is fairly static; however, it is not so. Competition from a foreign firm or exports may eventually cause problems for

Ecconomic globalization Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Ecconomic globalization - Essay Example tion has led to economic growth by increasing the aggregate demand which increases exports as well as increasing aggregate supply through higher levels of investments that are associated with globalization. Globalization has led to destruction of jobs in the manufacturing sector and increase of jobs in the service sector. In addition to that, globalization has led to the increased demand of skilled labour and reduced demand of unskilled labour. This is because firms have shifted their some of their productions stages to countries with cheap labour only leaving the ones that required highly skilled man power within the USA. This has led to widening income gap in the United States of America (Hanson, 2006). Globalization has impacted positively on export and import trade in the USA. This increased trade has led to increase in the GDP of the country. However the effect of globalization on balance of payment is uncertain and it hugely depends on the relative growth rates, exchange rates and

Enquiry Topics Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Enquiry Topics - Essay Example The debates in the state legislatures for ratification threw up serious concerns about the absence of protection of individual rights in the constitution which could lead to the government imposing tyrannical controls over its citizens. James Madison, the principal architect of the constitution, promised that the document would be amended to include individual rights. Several key states insisted on amendments and two states, North Carolina and Rhode Island refused to ratify the constitution without such amendments (Bill of Rights Institute1, 2010). This was the reason of urgency in introducing the legislation when the first congress met. The Bill of Rights is important because it guarantees what are termed the natural or inalienable rights of people. In the US Declaration of Independence, these rights include â€Å"life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness†. The ten amendments to the constitution that make up the Bill of Rights describe elements of these natural rights and en sure that the government cannot enact any laws that contravene these rights of the people. (Bill of Rights Institute 2, 2010). Though most people would name the First Amendment that guarantees freedom of speech, religion, assembly as the most important, the Fourth Amendment which protects citizens against unreasonable search and seizure has greater importance in distinguishing the US from a totalitarian state. This amendment ensures that no search or seizure can occur without a warrant issued on the basis of probable cause. The warrant also needs to describe the place to be searched and the persons or things to be seized (Archives.gov, n.d) 2) What test is used to determine whether a police officer’s conduct constituted a â€Å"show of legal authority†? What factors are relevant in applying this test? How does the court determine when a seizure occurred? Why is it often necessary for the courts to pinpoint the exact moment a seizure occurred? By case law, a police offi cer is permitted to stop, interrogate and frisk a person if he has reasonable suspicion of wrong doing or to prevent the possibility of a crime being committed. Such detention or seizure without a warrant is considered to represent a â€Å"show of legal authority†. The courts recognize that such police action is in violation of the provisions of the Fourth Amendment but have balanced this against the need to give the police some discretion for effective law enforcement. A police officer is permitted to approach an individual in a public place and ask if he will answer some questions. The individual may decline to do so and that cannot be the sole grounds for detaining that person. The person so stopped may be frisked for hidden weapons if the police officer believes there is danger to his person or to others from the individual. In stopping such an individual, there must be no excess display of force such as the police officer drawing a weapon or multiple officers surrounding the person (Gorton, 1970). In various cases, the Supreme Court has defined seizure of the person to occur when a reasonable person believes that he or she is no longer free to terminate the encounter with the police and leave. In the 1991 case California v. Holdari, D., the court has held that seizure occurs when an individual is subject to physical force or a show of authority and the person yields to such force or authority (Sullivan, 2010). It is important to pinpoint the exact moment when a seizure has occurred because the courts are required to exclude

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease - Essay Example It is quite unfortunate that over the past three decades the research has not shown much progress, it has focused only on the pathogenic roles of cigarette smoke, inflammation, protease and antiprotease balance. Research has also established an association of COPD with cigarette smoking; and patients with emphysema are known to suffer from a gene deficiency in an inhibitor of a neutrophils protease (Stang et al, 2000). The theory of cigarette-inflammation-protease has done a lot in the field of COPD epidemiology and pathology but is not able to reduce the pervasiveness and morbidity caused by COPD. It is therefore imperative to impose an urgent necessity for research in this area. The research is directed to sustain novel concepts and innovative experimental approaches and techniques pertinently suitable to COPD research. The research is also directed to explicate the cellular pathways involved in COPD pathogenesis. This is a step helpful in clinical trials of potential therapeutics. Explanation of these pathways is the step to develop a capability of pharmaceutical industry to design the mechanism specific drugs. (http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/meetings/workshops/copd_wksp.htm) The anonymity of COPD pathogenesis: COPD encompasses emphysema and chronic obstructive bronchitis, both these conditions relentlessly limits airflow that is not significantly reversed by bronchodilators. COPD progressively turn down the pulmonary functions with a rapid pace as compared to that in normal aging. Stimulating factors known to induce changes in animal lungs are cigarette smoke, pancreatic elastase, bacterial lipopolysaccharides, cadmium, chloramine-T, oxidants, silica, and rigorous malnourishment (Shapiro, 2000). It is established that many apparently dissimilar pathways are capable of causing emphysema or bronchitis,

American Government and Politics Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

American Government and Politics - Essay Example 2. The Pork-Barrel legislation was a catalyst to add more jobs to the economy. This allowed congress to approve more than 13,000 earmarks worth about $67 billion. However if this was banned, earmarks could not converted into cash. Since Congress has limited time debating, it is critical, eliminating pork might reduce federal budgeting. Banning pork would indicate that budgets would have to go the traditional budget process. The unique thing about pork was the fact that it ranked the requests based upon the urgency of the bill. That eliminated the desire of Congress to pursue its own sel-interests that were never reviewed by bureaucrats. If â€Å"pork† was truly eliminated, congress would lose the legal understanding for the domestic spending that is needed in local projects such as public infrastructure, education, medicare, and etc. However, â€Å"pork† would also eliminate the unnecessary funding that goes to support federal prison. Currently, many lobbyists continue to propagate and being rewarded for their campaign contributions towards this agenda. Pork barreling allows an individual to extend the power. For example, a defense contributor might engage in pork barreling by re-electing his local elective. Assignment 2 Select ONE of the following scenarios  for the assigned chapters and complete the Critical Analysis questions.   Your written response must be at least 100 words in support of your position on the questions.   Be sure to note the chapter number and feature in your response. The advent of social network without a doubt has made a critical impact towards enhancing or degrading the popularity of an individual. During the 2008 run, Obama became an expert at penetrating the social media networking resources and using it for his own benefits. Obama was successfully able to use twitter and post videos on youtube to gain momentum throughout the election. Twitter was essential to his campaign as it enabled him to spread his

Self Assessment Paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Self Assessment Paper - Essay Example 1). Therefore, the implication of this score on one’s future employer where managers believe in theory Y is that they could design motivational strategies that would empower employees like me to work with proper recognition and acknowledgement. Personal Values The top three personal values were identified in these areas with the following scores: family (200), social (200) and intellectual (200). The lowest personal value is spiritual (70). These indicates how I regard these values are paramount in one’s life. The implication of this is crucial in the organization where I would be part of to balance time spent for work and family life, as well as in social and intellectual endeavors. Intolerance for Ambiguity My score for this assessment is 52. The mean that was noted in the interpretation was actually 49; therefore, the score that I generated was actually a little bit higher than the mean. This could indicate a higher tolerance for ambiguity or a slightly high preponde rance for risky endeavors or delving into the unknown. The implication of this is that future organizations could tap my willingness and ability to adapt and adjust to turbulent situations; as such, I am not easily swayed or detracted from facing challenges and adversities. Two-Factor Profile My MF score is 40; while my HF score is 30. This means that I regard greater importance on motivating or satisfying factors than in hygiene or dissatisfying factors according to Herzberg’s two-factor theory (Schermerhorn, Osborn, Uhl-Bien, & Hunt, 2012). This also means job content is more important to me than job context. The implication of this result is that managers should focus on motivators through job content if they want to influence or motivate employees like me. Your Personality Type The score that was generated for this assessment is 35. This is indicative of a Type A personality which was described to be hurried and competitive. The implication of this as one is a member of a n organization is that my personality type should complement that of others; otherwise, if all members of the organization are all competitive, there could be increased pressure to exhibit a stipulated level of performance that could be stressful and extremely challenging. Time Management Profile My score for this assessment is 4. As indicated, the higher the score, the closer one’s behavior matches the recommended time management guidelines. In this regard, one strongly believes that my score is an indication of the need to improve on time management to coincide with those prescribed by the organization or institution that one would eventually serve. Week 2: Are You Cosmopolitan? My score in this assessment is 23. This means that that I am within the mixed orientation (between being manifesting a cosmopolitan orientation and a local orientation) or one exhibiting and identifying a career profession and that of an employing organization. Thus, the implication is that being at mid-point, I could assume both preferences and orientation that the two extremes apparently exhibit.

Dowry System Essay Example for Free

Dowry System Essay Dowry System is a common social problem. its harmful for our society. now we will read a paragraph about Dowry System. lets go for read Dowry System paragraph. Dowry is the money or property that is demanded by the bridegroom when he marries a bride. The system of dowry has now become a curse to the society. The torture upon the women by men is a very common sight of today. Sometimes the women become a victim of loss of life as a result of the torture by their husbands. The main reason of dowry is negative attitude of the parents of the bridegroom and the lack of education of the bride. The bridegroom takes dowry and the womenfolk become victims of dowry. The dowry system affects the whole society. The parents of the bride sell properties and become penniless to fulfill the demand of the bridegroom. Sometimes they cannot keep their word they give before getting their daughters marrying. On the other hand, the bridegroom gets huge property without any efforts. I have the social voice. This social curse can be eliminated by making womenfolk educated and self-dependent. The menfolk also should be given proper education to change their attitude. Gender discrimination Gender discrimination means to create difference between men and women. Specially in the third world countries women is considered inferior to men. In spite of their having merits and capabilities, they are not given what they deserve. They are working in the family and out side the family, but their contribution is not seen with due honour. There are various reasons why women are not given equal rights. Firstly most of the people of our country are not educated. They fail to see the potentialities of the women and the contribution they have made in different sectors of our life. They think, as women are physically weaker than men, they will not be able to perform many duties that men can do and hence they must be dominated by men. Secondly people of our country are superstitious. They do not know their religion properly. In religion men and women have been given equal position. But in the name of religion they try to dominate over women and do not give opportunity to flourish. Female children are the worse sufferers. Even their birth is not received warm heartedly where at the birth of male children they distribute sweets to express their happiness. The female children are considered burden of the family. They are not given equal food, equal opportunity for education. They become objects of negligence and victims of social injustice. This is a great problem which is to be solved. If our people are educated and given proper knowledge of religion they will understand the value of woman and can learn about the contribution they are making. If our female children are groomed up properly they will be able to carry any responsibility bestowed upon them and our society will advance very quickly. Illiteracy has been the bane of independent India. It is a shame to note that, the country that gave Epics like the Ramayana and the Mahabharata to the world should, in the 21st Century turn out to be one among the most illiterate countries of the world. How this has come to be is of course not far to seek. Even in the understanding of a layman, it is clear that India has remained so very illiterate because it has, for centuries been slave to someone or the other. The rulers, whoever they may have been never wanted the Indians to be educated as, an educated mass of men would be difficult to reign, and so they never wanted them to raise their heads, and so, kept them away from the light of education. So much of course can be understood but, the sad story of the Indian masses is that even their own rulers, the Indians had no different attitude, they also wanted the Indians to remain mostly illiterate for much the same reason as the foreigners had wished. Just like the foreign rulers the Indian rulers also thought that an educated public may not be so easy to control so they also followed the track laid by their predecessors. Besides this, if the masses remained uneducated, any kind of manipulation could be easily managed in the favour of the rulers. Thus, since the Indian rulers also wanted to keep the Indian masses away from the light of knowledge, the result is for all of us to see that, even after fifty years of independence, India is still lagging behind the world in its ratio of educated/literate and the illiterate. This goes without saying that, an educated gentry is far more difficult to handle and to satisfy than an uncouth ^educated lot. For this simple reason the Indian rulers kerned it fit to keep education a far off dream for the majority and the image that the foreigners had established has been maintained by our Indian rulers for simple selfish reasons that are obvious. For this reason I feel that, the rate of literacy in India is no surprise. This has been the definite policy of the Indian rulers just to suit their vicious designs and their own inefficient policies. Illiterate masses can be led like sheep and goats very easily however and wherever they are taken. They can be very easily aroused on any emotional issues, they can be easily convinced into understanding and thinking as their rulers want them to. If the masses were to be educated it would not have been so easy for the politician to do what and how he wants to do on any issue. People would have to be convinced with genuine reasoning to the correctness of all that is being done or being planned. For this simple reason, even the dawn of the 21st, Century finds India listed among the countries with the lowest ratio of education. Now, after a little over fifty years, the Government has seen and understood the folly of such a lame policy of education. Now the Government is re-scheduling its literacy programmes and making a mark of the fundamental right of each resident of India to the right of education. If the masses had not been kept illiterate, they would have in so many years, raised a hue and cry about their right to education and the Governments of the past years would not have found it all so very smooth sailing. However, at least now the Government has awakened to the fact and need of correct education but, let us remember that the decades already lost cannot come back or regained. For, to complete the task in hand and to manage the huge backlog makes the job rather cumbersome and time consuming besides being difficult to achieve. It is hoped that, if the direction taken is continued we will in the course of another decade be higher on the grade educated/literate countries.

The New Face of Hunger Essay Example for Free

The New Face of Hunger Essay Abstract   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The world is facing a new food crisis. Agricultural countries are experiencing the major shift in demand, and need time to reach the new economic equilibrium. There are several possible solutions to that, but none of them can improve the situation in the short run.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The problem   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   â€Å"The New Face of Hunger† discusses the food problems the world currently faces (The Economist, 2008). As the world is entering the â€Å"new unsustainable and politically risky period†, agricultural countries are unable to increase food production (The Economist, 2008). Equatorial countries experience persistent food riots. Haiti, Cameroon, Egypt, and Philippines have already turned food scarcity into an international political issue. The basic food products have experienced price increase in 2007: â€Å"last year wheat prices rose 77% and rice 16%† (The Economist, 2008). The majority of the smaller farmers do not know the reasons of such dramatic economic changes.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The causes   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   To economic professionals, the reasons of food crisis are more than evident. First, the price increase reflects the changes in demand. Indian and Chinese populations consume more food as they are becoming richer. The demand is seriously impacted by â€Å"western biofuels programmes, which convert cereals into fuel† (The Economist, 2008). Second, the current market situation also impacts the major export quotas, and promotes panic-buying economic behavior (The Economist, 2008). Third, the farmers cannot immediately react to the changes in market demand and export quotas. Food production requires time. As governments were trying to soften the impact of rising good price on domestic markets, farmers did not receive economic signals from external markets, and did not have any opportunity to adjust their production to the new market requirements. Moreover, to produce more food, farmers need time to grow it. They need more land, which should be suitable for agricultural needs. Undoubtedly, farmers will be able to cope with the food crisis in future, and will increase their production scales to fit the new demand, but is clear that â€Å"the transition to the new equilibrium is proving costlier, more prolonged, and much more painful than anyone had expected† (The Economist, 2008).   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Solutions   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Ideally, the 450 million of small farmers would be able to resolve the food crisis. Those who live in developing countries and own no more than several acres, could supply the world with food products, reducing their own poverty, improving environment, and promoting economic efficiency of food production: â€Å"in terms of returns on investment, it would be easier to boost grain yields in Africa from two tones per hectare to four than it would be to raise yields in Europe from eight tonnes to ten† (The Economist, 2008). However, small farmers seem pessimistic about these plans. The planted areas are cut back as their owners cannot afford purchasing fertilizers (The Economist, 2008). In addition, agricultural production cannot immediately respond to the changing demand. Higher yields need better irrigation and fancier seeds, which cannot be produced or found overnight (The Economist, 2008). â€Å"The time lag between dreaming up a new seed and growing it commercially in the field is ten to 15 years† (The Economist, 2008). This is why none of the proposed solutions would help resolving the food issue in the short run.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   I personally think that we should prepare ourselves to the long period of reaching a new economic equilibrium. It is true that the era of cheap products is over. Even when farmers finally manage to produce more, the price will hardly go down. As the average farm size has fallen from 1.5 to 0.5 hectares, small farmers are facing more difficulties in responding to higher food prices. We can only rely on the two factors: the growing food supply, which will slowly increase with time, and technologies and research, which will hopefully promote better yields without increasing the average farm size. In any case, agricultural production requires time. As there are no possible solutions which could help resolve the issue in the short run, we have nothing but to wait until the situation is improved. References The Economist. (2008). The new face of hunger. The Economist.com. Retrieved April 28, 2008, from http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11049284

Impact of Health and Safety Practices in Healthcare Work

Impact of Health and Safety Practices in Healthcare Work Introduction The cases study focuses on the failings in a private hospital due to the non-compliance of health and safety that led to the death of one staff and seriously injuring another. These failings have led to negative impacts on the employees who were affected, the family members and friends of those who affected and the organisation who failed to comply with the health and safety regulations. The impact of the failings on the employees and their relatives Financial In the case study the first employee was financially affected by the failings of the organisation to comply with health and safety regulations. The first employee to be injured by the faulty equipment suffered from third degree burns to their arms. Third degree burns are the most severe burns, which require treatment. (Getty Doyle and George Doyle, 2014) Depending on how badly the burns have affected the function of their arms, the employee will suffer further loss if they have to retire from their job. This will prevent them from bringing in income to support their responsabilities such as family; pay for addition treatment that they may also require in future. It must also be taken into consideration that this employee may never find employment again. If this is the case the individual will either have to depend on their support network or look for other sources of income such as benefits (GOV, 2015). This will also place the family members and relatives of the employee under press ure, having to take on some of the financial responsabilities of the employee not working and having to support them when they may already have their own needs and responsabilities to take care of. Likewise, the second employee to suffer from the non-compliance of health and safety lost their life due to the severity of the incident. This will place a burden and great strain on the family members of the employee. They will have to spend money paying for funeral costs, debts left behind from the person and taking responsibility for any other costs left behind (Cordon et al, 2008). Moral During and after the incident experienced by the first employee, they suffered from pain and will go through trauma of their experience (Osullivan, 2012). Despite the employee reporting the incident it was not taking into consideration that the equipment was unfit to use and the staff member themself was blamed for mishandling the equipment. This in it self was unacceptable as the worker had already suffered without feeling like the incident was their fault. The second employee has lost their life which can not be fixed or replaced, due to the failing of the organisation and the incident that took place could have been prevented had the correct health and safety measures been implemented and practiced. The purpose of health and social care is to prolong life and delay death (McDermid and Bagshaw, 2009) Physical and health implications The first employee to suffer from the non-compliance of health and safety by the hospital, experienced pain and trauma. The physical effects of the incident can also lead to depression and loss in self-confidence due to the change in his appearance. As mentioned, third degree burns are the most severe burns and from this the employees nerves are damaged affecting the way they are able to carry out activities (Getty Doyle and George Doyle, 2014). The health implication to the second worker was that they did not survive the incident, as so therefore that was the end result on their health. The organisation Financial After investigation from the Health and Safety Executives (HSE) and police, it was found that the responsibility of the failings would fall onto the hospital because of the negligence, having no adequate maintenance of equipment and staffs were not trained to a satisfactory level to use the machine. The private hospital will suffer financial loss and have the financial responsibility for the workers who suffered. If the employee who suffered from the third degree burn was to have financial costs to pay for their treatment and any after effects such as depression, it will become the responsibility of the organisation, as it is their fault that this employee sustained those injuries. All organisations have employers liability insurance which will cover these costs, if the organisation failed to have this then they would be breaching the law BBC, 2000) After the imprisonment of the managing director and around one hundred members of staff involved in the incident, the private hospital will lose out on production costs. The organisation will also have to make it a priority to recruit new staff; pay for training and change the way health and safety is implemented and monitored in the organisation. As well as this financial implication the hospitals reputation will also be put on the line due to their negligence, preventing the registration of new clients and also putting off potential staff. Legal Due to the incident being the fault of the hospital, they will be required to pay compensation to the employee who suffered third degree burns. The compensation can be to cover the cost of loss of income and pain caused by the injury (Morris, 2013).   Compensation will also be paid to the family members of the worker who lost their life. This is because of the financial costs they will have and to help support any dependents of the worker. Due to the outcome of the investigation the managing director of the private hospital and almost one hundred members of staff at that hospital were given a sentence of twelve months in prison. This is a form of legal prosecution for their failings and lack of responsibility. Moral When the first incident took place the worker reported it to the hospital. They passed it off as being the workers fault and kept the faulty machine in used for staff, which led to the death of the second worker. Had the organisation followed policies and procedures to monitor equipment and acted on the first incident, the death of the second worker could have been prevented. This shows a lack of care, respect ad consideration for their staff. Conclusion It can be seen how the impact of non-compliance with health and safety measures, policies, procedures and regulations has led to implications on the workers and their family members. Had the hospital followed the health and safety measures, the death of the worker could have been prevented and it could have also prevented all the loss the hospital had to incur due to negligence by a large amount of their staff. 3.2 Analyse the effectiveness of health and safety policies and practices in the workplace in promoting a positive, healthy and safe culture Introduction In my previous employment working as a Support Assistant, there were different policies and practices used to promote a positive health and safety culture. This was achieved through communication, training, providing staff with feedback and reporting health and safety concerns to management. Systems for communicating information and consulting with staff The first practice was to share information on health and safety through different methods of communication. Those methods include appraisals, newsletters, meetings, emails and posters. From my experience I found meetings to be one of the most effective methods used by managers and high level professionals of the organisation to communicate and consult staff. This is due to meetings allowing all levels of staff to make contributions and share their own experiences on health and safety. It also gives professionals the opportunity to communicate and interact directly, minimising the chances of barriers to communicating important information. During each meeting minutes were used to keep records of who attended meetings, what was discussed, what contributions were made and what actions were to be taken on health and safety. This promoted positive health and safety Despite meetings being a way to promote positive health and safety culture in my organisation, some staff failed to make positive contributions and did not achieve the actions that were noted in the minutes. This would often set back the team. For instance, we found that a number of customers who used the service were high risk and staff such as myself bought this up during the team meeting and came up with the solution to make a record of these customers so that we can have the right health and safety measure when they used the service. However, some staff did not take the time to identify the staff, putting others staff and customers at risk. Systems for reporting concerns and addressing feedback Other practices and policies for promoting a positive health and safety culture in the organisation I worked for are systems for reporting health and safety concerns and management addressing feedback from staff. My organisation used meetings and staff surveys. During the team meetings, managers would give feedback to staff about their concerns about health and safety and also took into account the proposals made to staff about methods of improving health and safety in the organisation. Like previously mentioned meetings was an effective system used as what was discussed was recorded as evidence as well as having the whole team present to ensure that everyone was aware. Myself and other staff also had the opportunity to speak directly with managers about our concerns and what the correct procedures were on dealing with health and safety concerns. Although, it was difficult to discuss with one of the managers, this way also meant that the discussion was not recorded and on some occasi ons that manager was not very supportive or active in given staff feedback. Surveys were also provided by other levels of the organisation, which gathered information from every member of staff in the organisation, once the surveys were complete the two-team managers, and the senior manager would give feedback during the team meeting. Training in health and safety Training is another system that was used to promote positive health and safety culture in my organisation. There were multiple forms of training such as distant learning training online and attending training days at a training centre. On my first day of employment I had induction training which introduced me to the organisational structure; fire evacuation plans and fire exit locations; health and safety kit location and the appointed first aider and was given the files introducing me to the customers I would be responsible for. I was given access to an online portal containing the policies and procedures of the organisation such as lone working and Data Protection Act 1998. I had to undergo further training on specific health and safety needs of the customers such as Managing Aggression and Domestic abuse. The training that staff received by the organisation promoted positive health and safety culture as it managers supported staff in selecting their training so that it was focused on the needs of the customers they were providing services for, preventing them from being overloaded with irrelevant information and so that their time was allocated accordingly. Staffs were also required to give feedback at the end of each training session to make contributions to the way that training was provided and if they felt that any changes could be made to improve the training. Conclusion Despite meetings being an effective practice to promote a positive health and safety culture in my organisation, it can be seen that the contribution of staff plays an important role in how positive the health and safety culture is. I also felt that during my experience the way managers and senior professionals in the organisation dealt with addressing feedback from staff was not very effective, despite it increasing staff awareness on health and safety and also increasing their contributions on managing health and safety in the organisation. 3.3 Evaluate  own  contributions  to  placing  the  health  and  safety  needs  of  individuals  at  the  centre  of  practice. Introduction During my experience working as a Support Assistant, I worked with vulnerable customers in the community that needed support for Money; Benefits, debts and rent arrears; Health emotional, physical, substance misuse, sexual; Employment and education; Housing; Loneliness and isolation. (GOV, 2015) In the organisation I worked for it was imperative to place the health and safety needs of the individuals who used the service at the centre of practice. My responsibilities as a Support Assistant that placed the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice My main responsibilities as a Support Assistant in relation to placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice, was to work in partnership with other services to provide support to the customers in order to support them in maintaining their accommodation, support them to find accommodation and live independently at home and in the community. I was good at complying with my responsibilities as I actively worked well in multi-agency and multi disciplinary teams, using effective communication, respecting different knowledge, skills and expertise as well as making positive contributions to team work. I executed my responsibilities well always making the individuals the focus of my care and ensuring that through all support provided was for their needs. There were multiple aspects that made it difficult to place the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice, one of those aspects being shortage of staff. During my employment there were periods of high staff turnaround, due to problems with management. This meant that I would have to take on more cases of customers and having to manage a high workload of complex cases. I was still expected to manage my time effectively and work within the same time frames, which I found difficult. I also feel that this limited my ability to placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice. My training as a Support Assistant to place  the  health  and  safety  needs  of  individuals  at  the  centre  of  practice On starting my employment I was given an induction training on the organisation as a requirement under the Health and Safety at Work Act (HASAWA) 1974. (GOV. 2012) Some of the training that I received based on the health and safety need of individuals were on The Data Protection Act 1998 which also incorporates confidentiality; Lone working policy and procedures; Fire; Safeguarding of Vulnerable Adults (SOVA); Violence and Aggression policy and procedures; Carrying out risk assessments; Gifts and Gratuities policy and procedures; The Reporting of Injuries, Diseases and Dangerous Occurrences Regulations 2013. During my employment as a Support Worker I attended the training that was chosen by my team manager, to meet the health and safety needs of the individuals using the organisation. Throughout my employment I used my knowledge from training to deal with practical situations. This allowed me to put the needs of individuals at the centre of practice. However, a limited amount of the training required for placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice was not available to me as a support worker. Despite this I was able to use my previous experience in health and social care to manage health and safety in order to place the needs of individuals at the centre of practice. For instance, part of my responsibility to placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice was to partner up with Support Workers to attend home assessments of the customers. These home assessments involved carrying out risk assessments, asking the customers questions and actively listening to them.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Risk assessments were used to identify the needs of the customers, which through my work I would help to support through working in partnership and with other agencies. Despite training allowing me to contribute towards placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice, I found that it was not always effective in every situation. Although training is a form of preparation for health and safety measures, real life situations vary and I had to be able to gain experience in dealing with health and safety through my practical work. My interactions as a Support Assistant with individuals, groups and agencies As a Support Assistant I was required to work with individuals, groups and agencies. I interacted with individuals (customers) in accordance with the organisation policies I used the person centred approach of promoting individuals right to make choices and informed decisions in order to place their health and safety needs at the centre of practice. In order to achieve this I used effective communication skills of listen, being empathetic, clarity, feedback and using appropriate communication methods for the individuals needs (Doyle, 2016). As well as using effective communication I worked in the community to meet individuals at their homes for those with physical and mental needs and upon the request of customers. However, on some occasions my interactions with some of the individuals could have been better. For instance, during an interaction with a customer who wanted permanent housing he became aggressive because he was not getting what he wanted from the service being provided. The customer did not feel that his individuals needs were being met by the service. However, he failed to understand that there was a registration process that was required to gather his information including a risk assessment and needs assessment to be able to meet his needs. During this interaction I feel that I could have been assertive, which would have allowed me to minimise his aggression and interactive with him more effectively to place his health and safety needs at the centre of practice. My interactions as part of a group were one of my strengths that allowed me to make a positive contribution towards placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice. The team had a good relationship, which allowed continuous interactions through meetings, group discussions and general discussions on how to promote the health and safety of individuals. During group interactions I was able to contribute my ideas, experiences and knowledge which was always taken into consideration and also interacted with the group to gain information and knowledge and skills that would help me to making more and improved contributions to placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice. As effective as my interactions were, the interactions with agencies were not always very effective and made it difficult to place the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice. As mentioned, part of my responsibilities were to work in partnership with other services and agencies, so good interaction was crucial. However, for interactions to be effective and beneficial it requires the cooperation and participation of both parties. From my experience I put full effort into interacting with other agencies, using different methods of communication to interact with the agencies if for any reason they were not available. This included sending emails using Information Communication Technology (ICT), writing letters, making telephone calls and attending the organisation directly. I exhausted all efforts especially when the health and safety needs of the individuals were high. On many occasions the organisations did not interact with me. This was often for many reasons such as having other priorities, having other workloads apart from working with the individuals from my organisation and some agencies were just uncooperative for their own needs. Poor and ineffective interaction meant that the health and safety needs of individuals were not always put at the centre of practice despite my contributions. Conclusion I believe that the contributions I made to placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice was done to the best of my ability and for me this was a priority due to the vulnerability of the customers who used the services. This was achieved by encouraging customer involvement; using my training to manage health and safety; complying and following organisational practices and using my communication skills to interact with individuals, groups and agencies. I found that despite the contributions I made to placing the health and safety needs of individuals at the centre of practice there were factors that limited my contributions and made it difficult to effectively achieve such as bad partnership relationships, some interactions being limited due to poor partnership working and some training not being accessible. References BBC. 2000. Personal injuries: How they pay. Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/687987.stm (Accessed 7 March 2017) Cordem et al. 2008. Financial Implications of Death of a Partner. Available at: https://www.york.ac.uk/inst/spru/research/pdf/Bereavement.pdf (Accessed 7 March 2017) Doyle, A. 2016. Top 10 Communication Skills for Workplace Success. Available at: https://www.thebalance.com/communication-skills-list-2063779 (Accessed 28 February 2017) Doyle G and Doyle G. 2014. Burns: information on first, second and third degree burns and how to treat them. Available at: http://www.netdoctor.co.uk/conditions/accidents-and-first-aid/a5366/burns/ (Accessed 7 March 2017) GOV. 2012. Health and safety training. Available at: http://www.hse.gov.uk/pubns/indg345.pdf (Accessed 28 February 2017) GOV. 2015. Key Support. Available at: http://www.haringey.gov.uk/housing/housing-related-support-supporting-people/housing-related-support-services-and-charges/key-support#problems_and_issues (Accessed 28 February 2017) GOV. 2015. Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefits: technical guidance. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/industrial-injuries-disablement-benefits-technical-guidance/industrial-injuries-disablement-)enefits-technical-guidance (Accessed 7 March 2017) McDermid R and Bagshaw S. 2009. Prolonging life and delaying death: The role of physicians in the context of limited intensive care resources. Available at: https://peh-med.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1747-5341-4-3 (Accessed 7 March 2017) Morris, I. 2013. Your rights after an injury at work and how to claim compensation. Available at: https://dircect2compensation.co.uk/articles/work-accidents/your-rights-after-an-injury-at-work (Accessed 7 March 2017) Nickle, B. 2013. The Train Drain: Why training may not be the solution. Available at: http://www.leanhealthcareexchange.com/?p=3154 (Accessed 28 February 2017) OSullivan, T. 2012. Workplace Trauma Can Trigger PTSD. Available at: http://www.lhsfna.org/index.cfm/lifelines/june-2012/workplace-trauma-can-trigger-ptsd/ (Accessed 7 March 2017)

Emily Bronte and Elizabeth Barrett-Browning :: Biography Biographies Essays

Emily Bronte and Elizabeth Barrett-Browning      Ã‚  Ã‚   As I looked through the literary works we have covered this term I noticed that there were only two strong females we have studied that seem to play a strong part in the development of British Literature. Emily Bronte and Elizabeth Barrett-Browning were strong, influential figures in the literary world.    Emily Bronte's Wuthering Heights can be credited with the title of the first Romantic novel of its time and her poetry was also redefining the poetry of the era. Unintentionally, I believe, Emily set a new standard for writing. Her use of nature, an undefined hero and heroine, the unusual structure of narrators, and her portrayal of the supernatural powers within the plot all contribute to her literary groundbreaking, trend setting style. Her poetry is also unique in that it has a personal flair not typically seen in previous poets. It is a very personal reflection of what she is enduring at the moment. That interpretation, however, is not entirely clear without the historical context.   "A little while, a little while, The noisy crowd are barred away; I can sing and I can smile A little while I've a holyday!" (WH 296) could be interpreted as any number of things without the reader being fully aware that at this point in her life Bronte was a trapped in a job she hated far from her beloved home and family. She was a governess. In that light it makes her poem makes complete sense; she needed to get away from the children she was responsible for. Several of her other poems were also born of this time in her life and reflected her homesickness.    Elizabeth Barrett-Browning too wrote about her life but I saw her work as more direct and open than that of Bronte. Without the historical knowledge of Bronte's life at the time of her writing her poems are beautiful but the reader cannot fully appreciate the emotive elements behind the words. Barrett-Browning's works were much clearer as to their intent and even without a working knowledge of her relationship with Robert Browning the reader can fully appreciate the powerful dramatic emotions flowing through her words. Her most famous sonnet "How do I love thee?

Christinaity In Middle Ages Essay -- European History

Christianity in the Middle Ages Christianity played a major role throughout the Middle Ages in society and politics. The Middle Ages, classified from 600 AD to 1350 AD, was significantly effected by Christianity because of the impact it had on the daily lives of people of the time. The beginning of the Early Middle Ages, after the Fall of Rome in 476 AD and the period known as the Dark Ages, the reorganization of the empire brought a desire for faith and religion, primarily Christianity. This trend of Christian importance was apparent until 1350, when the Black Death caused the end of a systematized era. The church is often viewed, during this period of time, as a center of corruption, greed, and evil, with materialistic popes and unholy acts. Even though there were immoral times, the presence of Christianity brought hope and stability to the empire politically and socially. In the Late Age of Antiquity, Christianity had started its rapid spread becoming the state religion in the fourth century, and emerging as a & quot;cultural trend" (212). It became further defined, and was the bases of the Western World's proceedings. Christianity's popularity influenced the church by people's newfound ability to concentrate on faith and a better life. With this foundation, the Middle Ages expanded religious importance by employing it in day to day life. Christianity was consistently present in the social arena of the Middle Ages. There were many controversies over Christian beliefs. The engrossment in Christianity in the eighth century had a non peaceful turn because of the Iconoclastic Controversy. It divided the Western and the Byzantine Empires additionally with the dispute over the use of icons in religious worship. This quarrel resulted in religious vigor through exploration of religious traditions and mysticism. The division between the empire was a constantly present with the arousal of disputes . The view of the Christian Church by the people varied from agreeable to immoral. In the Early Mid dle Ages, the church was disorganized and non-established. Although the progression of the Middle Ages led to the furtherance of the Church, there were many set backs in the reputation of the papacy. The weakness of the papacy was a result of ineffective and corrupt churches. The tenth century was a period of religious decline with privately owned monasteries and chur... ...ecline of papal power. The First Crusade was a successful venture for the papacy as it was considered an "armed pilgrimage" (325). To gain the support of the Christian community, Urban II promised an afterlife without purgatory and a direct ascent to heaven for Crusade participation. This "plenary indulgence" (325) made the First Crusade a favorable undertaking. On the other hand, the papal monarchy suffered from the additional Crusades that forced people to question the unity of the Christian Church. Christianity was an effective theme in the Middle Ages because it implemented most people and events of the time period. Socially, Christianity effected people's daily lives because faith offered another consideration for how life progressed. The introduction of new intellect and innovative advancements were growing with religious influenced. Politically, the emperor's were aided and impaired. The support of the papacy was useful in the coronation of emperors and the influence over the common people. On the counter-side, the papal monarchy offered competition for power. Christianity was always present in the Middle Ages, and it changed concepts and faith for all.

Dracula As an Outsider Essay -- Literary Analysis

Dracula, as it was written by Bram Stoker, presents to us possibly the most infamous monster in all of literature. Count Dracula, as a fictional character, has come to symbolize the periphery between the majority and being an outsider to that group. Dracula’s appeal throughout the years and genres no doubt stems from his sense of romanticism and monster. Reader’s no doubt are attracted to his â€Å"bad-boy† sensibilities, which provide an attraction into the novel. Looking first at his appearance, personality, and behaviour at the beginning of the novel, we can easily see Dracula’s blurred outsider status, as he occupies the boundaries of human and monster. Related to this is Dracula’s geographic sense of outsider. For all intents and purposes, Dracula is an immigrant to England, thus placing him further into the realm of outsider. To look at Bram Stoker’s Dracula as solely a monster in the most violent sense of his actions would to be look at a sole aspect of his character, and so we must look at how he interacts with the outside world to genuinely understand him. The purpose of Dracula’s physical description is to place him against humanity and see how he stacks up. He has various features which obviously make him a vampire, such as a set of sharp teeth. But there are other peculiarities to his description which mark him as being an outsider. For instance, when Jonathon Harker, and by extension the reader, first meets Dracula, he describes him as being â€Å"a tall old man, clean shaven save for a long white moustache, and clad in black from head to foot† (Stoker 15). At this point, he is a regular looking man, or at least normal enough that nothing elicits a reaction in Jonathon. Later, however, the aberrant constitution of Dracula co... ...elf by taking other shapes and become something that no longer even reveals a human. Every part of Dracula’s â€Å"adventure† in England is a reaction to his outsider status, but more so because he attacks the readers, or at least the readers that Stoker was writing for, in their native land. Lastly, and possibly most importantly, Dracula’s otherness stems from the fact that he is an immigrant from a foreign land, a land that is itself removed from certainty as it is culturally between. This immigrant status first starts out as basic hatred, then turns into a fear as Dracula attempts to colonise England and dominate it. Works Cited Stoker, Bram. Dracula. Toronto: Project Gutenberg Publishings, 1897. Kane, Michael. â€Å"Insiders/Outsiders: Conrad's "The Nigger of the "Narcissus" " and Bram Stoker's â€Å"Dracula†Ã¢â‚¬  The Modern Language Review. 92.1 (1997): 1-21. Print.

To Examine Pressure Ulcers Health And Social Care Essay

Pressure ulcers as stated by the European Pressure Ulcers Advisory Panel ( EPUAP, 2007 ) : â€Å" A force per unit area ulcer is localised hurt to the tegument and/or underlying tissue normally over a cadaverous prominence, as a consequence of force per unit area, or force per unit area in combination with shear and/or clash. A figure of lending or confusing factors are besides associated with force per unit area ulcers ; the significance of these factors is yet to be elucidated. † In add-on, National Institute for Clinical Excellence ( NICE, 2008 ) defines a force per unit area ulcers as â€Å" A force per unit area ulcer is harm that occurs on the tegument and implicit in tissue. Pressure ulcers are caused by three chief things: Pressure – the weight of the organic structure pressing down on the tegument. Shear – the beds of the tegument are forced to skid over one another or over deeper tissues, for illustration when you slide down, or are pulled up, a bed or chair or when you are reassigning to and from your wheelchair. Friction – rubbing the tegument † . Some of the force per unit area ulcers intrinsic causes ( built-in to single ) include decrease mobility, incontinency ( Horn, 2004 ) , old age, malnutrition, hapless hygiene, dry tegument, diabetes mellitus and surgery ( ex. hip break ) and anemia ( Gunningberg, 2000 ) . Some extrinsic causes include clash, shearing forces, hypothermia ( Scott, 2001 ) and length of surgery ( Houwing, 2004 ) . Pressure ulcers are a common complication of lessening mobility due to hip break with reported incidence of between 8.8 % and 55 % ( Baumgarten, 2003 ) . Harmonizing to Versluysen ( 1985 ) , 17 % of patients that is admitted to hospital for surgery had force per unit area ulcers upon admittance and that 34 % developed lesions during the first hebdomad of stay in infirmary. Versluysen ( 1986 ) conducted another survey that 66 % of the patients with hep break developed force per unit area ulcer, bulk of these force per unit area ulcers appeared during the first 48 hours of admittance. Incontinenc e increases the hazard of holding a force per unit area ulcer because of the inordinate wet on the tegument, moist tegument adhere to the mattress therefore consequences to increased shearing forces ( Defloor and Grypdonck, 1999 ) . Dry tegument besides increases the hazard of holding force per unit area ulcers because of the reduced snap of the tegument ( Gunnigberg, 2000 ) . Surgery itself ( Lindgren, 2005 ) and length of surgery of 4 hours or more ( Schoonhoven, 2002 ) have been reported to increase the hazard of developing a force per unit area ulcer. In 2005, the National Institute for Clinical Excellence has issued clinical guidelines to the National Health Service ( NHS ) about force per unit area ulcers. The guidelines are about bar and intervention of force per unit area ulcers, which are recommended for the usage of physicians, nurses and other health care professionals working in the National Health Service in England and Wales. The guidelines were prepared by health care professionals, scientist, and people stand foring the position of those who have or attention for person with the status. The groups make a recommendation based on the grounds available at the clip the recommendation is made on the best manner of handling or pull offing the status, and these clinical guidelines are recommended for good pattern. Under these NICE guidelines ( 2005 ) , it recommends that healthcare professional work together with the patients in order for the patients to hold an active function in doing determination sing their program of att ention with the pick to affect their carer if they wished to. It besides mentioned that health care squad should esteem and take into consideration the patient ‘s cognition, experience, and demands, particularly if the patient has have been at hazard of developing force per unit area ulcers for a long clip. Furthermore, it besides mentioned that patients and carer should be given developing and information as to the grounds why the patient is at hazard of developing force per unit area ulcer, parts of the organic structure most at hazard to hold force per unit area ulcer, how to inspect the tegument and acknowledge the alterations in the tegument, how to alleviate force per unit area, and supply information to the patient and carer where to happen aid, advice, and support. Pressure on the tegument over cadaverous prominence such as sacrum, hips, cubituss, mortise joints, heels and shoulder causes decreased blood flow to the tissue, therefore cut downing tissue oxygenation. If this force per unit area is non relieved, the affected country starts to alter coloring material, inflammation to patients with just skin tone and bluish for patients with darker tegument tone and deemed to be ‘at hazard ‘ ( EPUAP, 2009 ) and may turn out to be difficult to observe, which so advancement to a more intensive tissue hurt if no attention is given. Members of the European Pressure Ulcers Advisory Panel and National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel ( 2009 ) have had on-going treatment about many similarities the two organisation ‘s force per unit area ulcer grading/staging systems. They developed a common international categorization system and definition for force per unit area ulcers. EPUAP and NPUAP attempted to happen a common word to depict the class and phase but to no help. The word class was recommended as a impersonal term against phase and class and has the advantage of being non-hierarchical. They recognize that there is a similarity to the words – phase and class, and hence, they suggested to utilize whatever is most clear and understood. The most important addition from this partnership is that the degrees of skin-tissue harm and definition of force per unit area ulcer are the same, even though they may be labelled otherwise. Pressure ulcers are classified into four ( 4 ) stages/categories based on the EPUAP ( 2009 ) categorization system. Non-blanching erythema is labelled as grade/category I, the tegument is integral with inflammation that is non-blanching of a localised country over a bony prominence when light force per unit area is applied. The affected country may be painful, house, soft, and heater or ice chest compared to the environing tissue. As mentioned earlier, patients with dark skin tone may be hard to measure and hold ‘at hazard ‘ . Partial thickness skin loss of both or either one of the first or 2nd bed of the tegument called cuticle and corium is classed as stage/category II, this stage/category of force per unit area ulcer presents itself in many ways, it can be a ruddy or glistening shallow ulcer without gangrene ( bed of dead tissue separated from the environing ) , may besides show itself as an integral or ruptured sero-sanginous filled or serum-filled blister, or merely bruising. Stage/category III is characterized with full thickness skin loss ; it involves harm to or the loss of hypodermic fat but non musculus, sinew, or bone. Pressure ulcer in this stage/category varies harmonizing to the site affected. Stage/category IV portraits as force per unit area ulcer with full thickness skin loss with extended harm of tissue which may include musculuss, facia, and other supporting construction and may set the patient at hazard of developing osteomyelitis or osteitis. NMC Code of Conduct ( 2008 ) EPUAP definition ( 2007 ) hypertext transfer protocol: //www.npuap.org/pr2.htm Nice definition hypertext transfer protocol: //www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/pdf/CG029publicinfo.pdf Versluysen M. Pressure sores in aged patients. The epidemiology related to hip operations. J Bone Joint Surg Br 1985 ; 67: 10-3. Versluysen M. How aged patients with femoral break develop force per unit area sores in infirmary. BMJ 1986 ; 292: 1311-3. Defloor T, Grypdonck MH. Siting position and bar of force per unit area ulcers. Appl Nurs Res 1999 ; 12: 136-42. Gunningberg L, Lindholm C, Carlsson M, Sjoden PO. The development of force per unit area ulcers in patients with hep breaks: unequal nursing certification is still a job. J Adv Nurs2000 ; 31:1155-64. Lindgren M, Unosson M, Krantz AM, Ek AC. Pressure ulcer hazard factors in patients undergoing surgery. J Adv Nurs 2005 ; 50: 605-12. Schoonhoven L, Defloor T, new wave der Tweel I, BuskensE, Grypdonck MH. Hazard indexs for force per unit area ulcers during surgery. Appl Nurs Res 2002 ; 15: 163-73. EPUAP hypertext transfer protocol: //www.epuap.org/guidelines/Final_Quick_Prevention.pdf ( 2009 ) Lindholm C, Sterner E, Romanelli M, Pina E, Torra y Bou J, Hietanen H, Iivanainen A, Gunningberg L, Hommel A, Klang B, Dealey C. Hip break and force per unit area ulcers – the Pan-European Pressure Ulcer Study – intrinsic and extrinsic hazard factors. Int Wound J 2008 ; 5:315-328. Scott EM, Leaper DJ, Clark M, Kelly PJ. Effectss ofwarming therapy on force per unit area ulcers – a randomised test. AORN J 2001 ; 73:921-7,929-33, 936-28. Houwing R, Rozendaal M, Wouters-Wesseling W, Buskens E, Keller P, Haalboom J. Pressure ulcerrisk in hep break patients. Acta Orthop 2004 ; 75:390-3. Gunningberg L, Lindholm C, Carlsson M, Sjoden PO. Effect of visco-elastic froth mattresses on the development of force per unit area ulcers in patients with hep breaks. J Wound Care 2000 ; 9:455-60. Baumgarten M, Margolis D, Berlin JA, Strom BL, Garino J, Kagan SH, Kavesh W, Carson JL. Riskfactors for force per unit area ulcers among aged hip break patients. Wound Repair Regen 2003 ; 11:96-103. Horn SD, Bender SA, Ferguson ML, Smout RJ, Bergstrom N, Taler G, Cook AS, Sharkey SS, Voss AC. The National Pressure Ulcer Long-Term Care Study: force per unit area ulcer development in long-run attention occupants. J Am Geriatr Soc 2004 ; 52:359-67.

Black Swan, Cinema Paper

Sarah Risner Dr. Foley Cinema 19 November 2012 Black Swan â€Å"Black Swan† is a movie with a dark transformation of Nina the white swan metamorphosing herself into the black swan, with symbolism and psychosis playing well within the movie. Most of this movie plays into the world the ballerina, and exposes some of the hidden motives of this world. The other world this movie plays into is the world of someone with psychosis, and the mysteries that follow between both worlds. It seems the ballerina world feeds into the patient with psychosis and feeds the mental illness.After one watches this movie they will be horrified and troubled at the same time. The character of Nina will leave one trying to figure out the mysteries of Nina’s life. It actually leaves the audience with more questions than answers after watching the movie. The questions are what give the movie great success. The setting of â€Å"Black Swan† takes place in New York at a ballerina studio where Ni na and Lily are preparing for the production of Swan Lake. The plot of the movie is about Nina and her obsession with dance. Her mother is a former ballerina and is very controlling of her daughter.The dance director by the name of Thomas Leroy decides to replace the character Beth with Nina for the new season of Swan Lake. Nina is his choice, but he also has eyes for the character Lily. Nina feels competition between herself and Lily. Nina has an obsessive view between herself and Lily. This part is complicated because it means the character has to play both the white swan and the black swan. The white swan requires the ballerina to play a part of purity and elegance. The black swan part requires the ballerina to play a part of cunning and sexuality.Nina will go to the dark side of this character and it will drive her insane. Lily and Nina form a candid friendship which seems to be insane itself. The conflict of this movie is the inner struggle of Nina with her own personality wagi ng war against itself. The character change of this movie is with the main character of Nina. Nina starts out innocent and ends up exploring her dark side in order to turn herself into the character of the black swan. Some universal symbolism found in this movie is the use of the character Lily asNina’s doppelganger. The symbol is of course is the twin/double identity of Nina’s self. This embodies Nina’s good/evil sides of herself. Mirrors are used in the film to show Nina splitting into two different personalities. The cultural symbolism in this movie is seen in black and white symbolism. Black of course shows the dark side of Nina, and white the good side of Nina. It is shown with actual color within most of the movie though. The theme of this movie is the cost of fame, along with the dark sides of show business.It also shows complexities of trying to be perfect and how the stress of perfection can be one’s downfall. According to The Sticky Shoe Review by Logan Arney, says the Black Swan having a target audience is a bold statement. The reason for this being that the movie has attracted all kinds of people to watching it due to the Oscars and so forth. It has almost created its own target, or curious on-seekers just wondering what goes on in this film. The marketing of this film has many causes to it such as big names. The big acting names are Natalie Portman who stars in this film, director Darren Aronofsky.Aronofsky himself has directed big hits such as â€Å"The Wrestler†, â€Å"The Fountain†, â€Å"Requiem for a Dream†, and â€Å"Pi†. Natalie Portman has starred in big hits such as â€Å"V is for Vendetta†, and â€Å"The Other Boleyn Girl†. Adding to this list are the other two big actors being Vincent Cassel, and Wynonna Ryder and not to mention this film being the buzz at the Venice Film Festival of 2010. There is a lot of PR when this bag of names is mentioned (Mu). The script used in this film was written by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, and John McLaughlin. The story was written by Andres Heinz (IMDb).According to Tom Long, giving his critical response about this film, he believes the movie works due to Portman’s great commitment to character which gives the movie its greatness. He also admits this movie is not necessarily for everyone, but for anyone looking for the horror and craziness in a ballerina movie (Long). The mise-en-scene in â€Å"Black Swan† shows up as black and white color. For one, the costume of the dancers shows as black and white. The dress in the reception is black, as are the walls of the ballet company. The editing of this movie was done by Andrew Weisblum (IMDb).What made the editing so great in this movie was how the emotions were transferred on film while adeptly telling the good story. The lighting in â€Å"Black Swan† is very dramatic with tones of greens and magentas showing up within different characters, and of course the black and whites within the film. The music in this film is like any suspense thriller movie in that one knows something is about to happen when a scary tune starts to play. The sound effects seem to mimic the actual swan cry in some parts of the movie. This in effect makes the film very symbolic of the actual animal of a swan.This movie has many camera angles that clearly explore this movies symbolism. One of the high-angle shots of this film is when the character of Nina when she is dancing on stage, and she is looked down on by the audience. A good close-up shot are when it shows Nina’s feet and it shows how much control she has in her movement. A significant wide-shot in the movie is when we are in Nina’s bedroom, and there is light hitting the bed. The medium-shot in the movie that probably catches most everyone’s eye is when Nina is passing her other self on the subway.This movie uses mostly the fixed-camera. In conclusion, this movie clearly g oes beyond any limit set forth on most film. It has used more symbolism than other movies which makes it quite interesting. It also has the uncanny terroristic theme of terror imposed within it. One feels as if the ballerina world has been exposed while showing to what extremes the female ballerina will go thru to stay skinny, and be perfect. The black and whites of the film show to what extremes in which the ballerina will show herself through. Works Cited Arney, Logan. â€Å"Black Swan. The Stickey Shoe Review (2010): 1. July 19, 2012 http://stickyshoereview. com/? p=107 â€Å"Black Swan,† IMDb (2010): 1. July 20, 2012 < http://www. imdb. com/title/tt0947798/> Long, Tom. â€Å"Review: Natalie Portman soars in ‘Black Swan'† The Detroit News Opinion (2010): 1. July 19, 2012 < http://www. detroitnews. com/article/20101210/OPINION03/12100326/1034/ent02/Review–Natalie-Portman-soars-in–Black-Swan-> Mu, Jennifer. â€Å"Love this Black Swan Film Marketi ng,† Luminosity Marketing (2010): 1. July 19, 2012 < http://luminositymarketing. com/blog/? p=2616>

Lost Sales Forecast

TERM- PAPER Lost Sales Forecast Table of Contents Introduction3 Carlson Department Store Sales data for September 1992 through August 19964 Countywide Department Stores Sales data for September 1992 through August 19965 Choosing the appropriate forecasting method6 Trend and Seasonal Components in Forecasting7 An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store10 Conclusion10 Introduction The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31, 1996. The store was closed for four months (September 1996 through December 1996) causing our sales drop to $0.The task of this report is to analyze sales in our department store in past 48 months and develop estimates of the lost sales at the Carlson Department Store for the months of September through December 1996. The Carlson Department Store is involved in a dispute with insurance company concerning the amount of lost sales during the time the store was closed. Two key issues must be resolved: 1) The amount of sales Carlson would have made if the hurricane had not struck, and 2) Whether Carlson is entitled to any compensation for excess sales from increased business activity after the storm.More than $8 billion in federal disaster relief and insurance money came into the county, resulting in increased sales at department stores and numerous other businesses. Carlson Department Store Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 Certain conditions should be met by any good forecast. A good forecast should usually be based on adequate knowledge of the relevant past. With our company – The Carlson Department Store – we have the sales data for the 48 months preceding the storm available. This amount of historical data fulfills the requirement for the volume of relevant data.Table  1 shows the sales data for the Carlson Department Store for the months of September 1992 through August 1996. Table 1: Sales for Carlson Department Store [mil. $] |Month |1992 |1993 |19 94 |1995 |1996 | |February | |1. 80 |1. 89 |1. 99 |2. 28 | |March | |2. 03 |2. 02 |2. 42 |2. 69 | |April | |1. 99 |2. 23 |2. 45 |2. 48 | |May | |2. 32 |2. 39 |2. 57 |2. 3 | |June | |2. 20 |2. 14 |2. 42 |2. 37 | |July | |2. 13 |2. 27 |2. 40 |2. 31 | |August | |2. 43 |2. 21 |2. 50 |2. 23 | |September |1. 71 |1. 90 |1. 89 |2. 09 | | |October |1. 90 |2. 13 |2. 29 |2. 54 | | |November |2. 74 |2. 56 |2. 83 |2. 97 | | |December |4. 20 |4. 16 |4. 04 |4. 5 | | Series of numbers is often difficult to interpret. Graphing the observations can be very helpful since the shape of a complicated series is more easily discerned from a picture. The data for Carlson Department Store, as can be seen in Graph 1, indicate some seasonal fluctuations. It can be seen that the sales in last quarter are higher than in the first 3 quarters of a year, with the highest volume of sales in December. [pic] Countywide Department Stores Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 The data for all department stor es in the county are summarized in Table 2.Table 2: Department Store Sales for the county [mil. $] |Month |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 | |February | |48. 0 |48. 6 |45. 6 |51. 6 | |March | |60. 0 |59. 4 |57. 6 |57. 6 | |April | |57. 6 |58. 2 |53. 4 |58. 2 | |May | |61. 8 |60. 6 |56. 4 |60. 0 | |June | |58. 2 |55. 2 |52. 8 |57. 0 | |July | |56. 4 |51. |54. 0 |57. 6 | |August | |63. 0 |58. 8 |60. 6 |61. 8 | |September |55. 8 |57. 6 |49. 8 |47. 4 |69. 0 | |October |56. 4 |53. 4 |54. 6 |54. 6 |75. 0 | |November |71. 4 |71. 4 |65. 4 |67. 8 |85. 2 | |December |117. 6 |114. 0 |102. 0 |100. 2 |121. 8 | Sales of all department stores in the county, as can be seen from Graph 2, show similar seasonal fluctuations as sales of Carlson Department Store. pic] From the above graph one can also observe that in past 3 years (years 1993-1995) the volume of sales in the month of September went down, and slowly went up again in October and November and usually reached its peak in December. The unusual b ehavior in September 1996 pulls our attention. For the first time in 4 years history we observe that the sales volume in September compared to August sales went up by 11. 7 % whereas in September 1993 they were down by 8. 6%, in September 1994 down by 15. 3%, and in September 1995 actually down by 21. 8%.The question is why such a change occurred? And the answer is that more than $8 billion in federal disaster relief and insurance money came into the county, which resulted in these increased sales at department stores. Choosing the appropriate forecasting method There are many different forecasting methods. One of the challenges we had to face was to choose the right technique. Smoothing methods are appropriate for a stable time series. When a time series consist of random fluctuations around a long-term trend line, a linear equation may be used to estimate the trend.When seasonal effects are present, seasonal indexes can be computed and used to deseasonalize the data and to develop forecasts. When both seasonal and long-term trend effects are present, which is also the case of Carlson Department Store as well as the case of all department stores in the county, a trend line is fitted to the deseasonalized data; the seasonal indexes are then used to adjust the trend projections. Trend and Seasonal Components in Forecasting The procedure of forecasting the sales for months September through December 1996 (had there been no hurricane) for The Carlson Department Store is summarized in Table 3.Table 3: Procedure of forecasting sales for Sep. -Dec. 1996 |   |   |Sales |12-month |Centered |Seasonal |Deseasonalized | | | | |Moving |Moving |Irregular |Sales | | | | |Average |Average |Value | | |1992 |Sept. |1. 71 |- |- |- |2. 09 | |   |Oct. |1. 90 |- |- |- |1. 95 | |   |Nov. |2. 74 |- |- |- |2. 35 | |   |Dec. |4. 20 |- |- |- |2. 41 | |1993 |Jan. 1. 45 |- |- |- |1. 46 | |   |Feb. |1. 80 |- |- |- |2. 13 | |   |Mar. |2. 03 |- |- |- |2. 09 | |   |Apr. |1. 9 9 |- |- |- |2. 05 | |   |May |2. 32 |- |- |- |2. 24 | |   |June |2. 20 |- |- |- |2. 37 | |   |July |2. 13 |- |- |- |2. 28 | |   |Aug. |2. 43 |- |- |- |2. 2 | |   |Sept. |1. 90 |2. 24 |- |- |2. 32 | |   |Oct. |2. 13 |2. 26 |2. 25 |0. 95 |2. 18 | |   |Nov. |2. 56 |2. 28 |2. 27 |1. 13 |2. 19 | |   |Dec. |4. 16 |2. 26 |2. 27 |1. 83 |2. 38 | |1994 |Jan. |2. 31 |2. 26 |2. 26 |1. 02 |2. 32 | |   |Feb. |1. 89 |2. 33 |2. 29 |0. 82 |2. 23 | |   |Mar. |2. 02 |2. 34 |2. 33 |0. 87 |2. 08 | |   |Apr. |2. 23 |2. 34 |2. 34 |0. 5 |2. 30 | |   |May |2. 39 |2. 36 |2. 35 |1. 02 |2. 31 | |   |June |2. 14 |2. 36 |2. 36 |0. 91 |2. 30 | |   |July |2. 27 |2. 36 |2. 36 |0. 96 |2. 43 | |   |Aug. |2. 21 |2. 37 |2. 36 |0. 94 |2. 38 | |   |Sept. |1. 89 |2. 35 |2. 36 |0. 80 |2. 31 | |   |Oct. |2. 29 |2. 35 |2. 35 |0. 97 |2. 34 | |   |Nov. |2. 83 |2. 36 |2. 36 |1. 20 |2. 42 | |   |Dec. 4. 04 |2. 39 |2. 37 |1. 70 |2. 31 | |1995 |Jan. |2. 31 |2. 38 |2. 38 |0. 97 |2. 32 | |   | Feb. |1. 99 |2. 38 |2. 38 |0. 84 |2. 35 | |   |Mar. |2. 42 |2. 38 |2. 38 |1. 02 |2. 49 | |   |Apr. |2. 45 |2. 42 |2. 40 |1. 02 |2. 52 | |   |May |2. 57 |2. 44 |2. 43 |1. 06 |2. 48 | |   |June |2. 42 |2. 45 |2. 44 |0. 99 |2. 60 | |   |July |2. 40 |2. 47 |2. 46 |0. 7 |2. 57 | |   |Aug. |2. 50 |2. 49 |2. 48 |1. 01 |2. 70 | |   |Sept. |2. 09 |2. 51 |2. 50 |0. 84 |2. 55 | |   |Oct. |2. 54 |2. 53 |2. 52 |1. 01 |2. 60 | |   |Nov. |2. 97 |2. 55 |2. 54 |1. 17 |2. 54 | |   |Dec. |4. 35 |2. 56 |2. 55 |1. 70 |2. 49 | |1996 |Jan. |2. 56 |2. 58 |2. 57 |1. 00 |2. 57 | |   |Feb. |2. 28 |2. 61 |2. 59 |0. 88 |2. 69 | |   |Mar. |2. 9 |2. 63 |2. 62 |1. 03 |2. 77 | |   |Apr. |2. 48 |2. 65 |2. 64 |0. 94 |2. 55 | |   |May |2. 73 |2. 65 |2. 65 |1. 03 |2. 64 | |   |June |2. 37 |2. 67 |2. 66 |0. 89 |2. 55 | |   |July |2. 31 |2. 66 |2. 67 |0. 87 |2. 47 | |   |Aug. |2. 23 |2. 66 |2. 66 |0. 84 |2. 40 | |   |Total |   |   |   |   |113. 72 | Columns 1 and 2 represent al l the years and months.Column 3 shows the monthly sales data of Carlson Department Store. The first step of the deseasonalizing process is to calculate the moving averages. We had to decide how many observations to use in the moving average. One selection method is to calculate the mean error and the mean squared error of the differences between the actual data and the forecast. The series with the smallest squared error would be preferred. The Management Scientist results for the Carlson Department Store show that the 12-month moving average gives the smallest squared error. The 12-month moving average values are shown in the Column 4.If the number of data points in a moving average calculation is an even number, we need to center the moving average values to correspond to a particular time period, as we did in the calculations in Column 5. By dividing each time series observation by the corresponding centered moving average value, we could identify the seasonal-irregular effect in the time series. Column 6 summarizes the resulting seasonal-irregular values for the entire time series. By dividing each time series observation by the corresponding seasonal index, we remove the effect of season from the time series.Deseasonalized sales data are shown in Column 7 and a graph of the data (graph 3) is on the next page. The first step of the decomposition procedure has now been completed. The new series has eliminated the seasonality. The next step is to calculate the trend. The observation of the deseasonalized sales data of Carlson Department Store appears to indicate that a straight line would be most appropriate form of equation that would describe the trend. Graph 3: Deseasonalized sales data of Carlson Department Store [pic] Applying regression analysis we have arrived to this the linear trend equation: Tt = 2. 875 + 0. 0118t. The slope of 0. 0118 in the trend equation indicates that over past 4 years the Carlson Department Store has experienced an average gro wth in sales of about $0. 0118 per year. If we assume that the past 4-year trend in sales is a good indicator for the future, we can use the equation above to project the trend component of the time series. Substituting t = 49, 50, 51, and 52 into the equation we yield the deseasonalized sales of Carlson DS for September through December 1996. For September 1996 we get $2. 67 mil, for October 1996 $2. 68, November 1996 $2. 9 and for December 1996 $2. 70. In order to apply the seasonal effects we multiply these projected deseasonalized sales by the relevant seasonal indexes calculated in Table 4. Table 4: Seasonal Indexes |Month |Seasonal-Irregular Component Values |Seasonal | | | |Index | |Jan. |- |0. 63 |0. 64 |0. 65 |0. 69 |0. 65 | |Feb. |- |0. 78 |0. 80 |0. 81 |0. 87 |0. 82 | |March |- |1. 12 |1. 11 |1. 4 |1. 06 |1. 11 | |April |- |1. 00 |1. 01 |0. 99 |1. 02 |1. 01 | |May |- |1. 04 |1. 03 |1. 03 |1. 03 |1. 03 | |June |- |0. 99 |0. 97 |0. 97 |0. 98 |0. 98 | |July |- |0. 96 |0. 92 |0. 98 |0. 98 |0. 96 | |Aug. |- |1. 07 |1. 09 |1. 10 |1. 02 |1. 07 | |Sep. |- |0. 98 |0. 93 |0. 88 |1. 05 |0. 96 | |Oct. |- |0. 90 |0. 8 |0. 99 |1. 03 |0. 98 | |Nov. |1. 00 |1. 02 |1. 00 |1. 04 |1. 00 |1. 01 | |Dec. |1. 47 |1. 45 |1. 41 |1. 37 |- |1. 43 | An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store By multiplying the projected deseasonalized sales by the relevant seasonal indexes calculated in Table 4 we will arrive to the levels of sales for months September 1996 through December 1996 had there been no hurricane: September 1996 $2. 19 mil. October 1996$2. 62 mil November 1996 $3. 14 mil December 1996$4. 1 mil The above-described procedure for forecasting sales for Carlson Department Store can be applied to countywide department stores too. It would give following results: The estimated countywide department store sales had there been no hurricane (and no disaster relief money) for September 1996 is $46. 65 mil, for October 1996 $51. 22, for November 1996 $64. 4, and for December 1996 $99. 3. Comparing these figures to the actual sales of the countywide department stores one can see that the actual sales are over-valuated. I attribute this to the $8 billion of disaster relief money.Had the county department stores not received the disaster relief money they would probably continue their downward trend described by function Y = 63. 64 – 0. 13t. The slope of –0. 13 in the trend equation indicates that over past 4 years countywide department stores have experienced an average decline in sales of about $0. 13 per year. Conclusion The task of this report was to resolve two key issues. 1. Estimate the amount of sales Carlson would have made if the hurricane had not struck. We have come to a conclusion that the sales for September 1996 had there been no hurricane would be $2. 9 mil, in October 1996 it would be $2. 62 mil, in November 1996 it would be $3. 14 mil and in December 1996 it would be $4. 71 mil. 2. Find out whether Carlson is e ntitled to any compensation for excess sales from increased business activity after the storm. More than $8 billion in federal disaster relief and insurance money came into the county, resulting in increased sales at department stores and numerous other businesses. Based on our estimates we strongly believe that the countywide department stores would made much lower sales haven’t they received the relief money.Therefore we believe that our department store is entitled to compensation for excess sales from increased business activity after the hurricane and we will inquire the insurance company to cover our lost sales for months September through December 1996 in the amount of $12. 66 mil. †¢ Reference: †¢ Keat, P. G. , Young, K. Y. : Managerial Economics. Economic tools for today’s decision makers. 3rd edition. †¢ Anderson, D. R. , Sweeney, D. J. , Williams, T. A. : Quantitative Methods for Business. 8th edition. †¢ Barr, Richard. Southern Methodist University. â€Å"The Appeal of Network Models†. 1997. 5 Feb 1997.